New Seat Details - Barrow and Furness

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Barrow and Furness been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	25,141	48.0%
LAB	24,376	46.5%
LIB	1,401	2.7%
UKIP	1,073	2.0%
Green	376	0.7%
CON Majority	765	1.5%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Barrow and Furness: Map

List of old seats forming part of Barrow and Furness

Old seat: Barrow and Furness

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Barrow and Furness, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Barrow and Furness				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Barrow-in-Furness	Barrow Island	1,665	Barrow and Furness	483	827	19	46	10	0	0	0	1,385
Barrow-in-Furness	Central	2,792	Barrow and Furness	816	1,414	29	71	13	0	0	0	2,343
Barrow-in-Furness	Dalton North	4,948	Barrow and Furness	1,777	1,332	124	100	12	0	0	0	3,345
Barrow-in-Furness	Dalton South	4,728	Barrow and Furness	1,684	1,496	57	45	14	0	0	0	3,296
Barrow-in-Furness	Hawcoat	4,156	Barrow and Furness	1,724	814	52	32	11	0	0	0	2,633
Barrow-in-Furness	Hindpool	4,243	Barrow and Furness	1,115	2,019	54	43	21	0	0	0	3,252
Barrow-in-Furness	Newbarns	4,455	Barrow and Furness	1,413	1,405	60	37	14	0	0	0	2,929
Barrow-in-Furness	Ormsgill	4,275	Barrow and Furness	1,086	1,944	73	43	20	0	0	0	3,166
Barrow-in-Furness	Parkside	4,331	Barrow and Furness	1,283	1,588	78	41	19	0	0	0	3,009
Barrow-in-Furness	Risedale	4,554	Barrow and Furness	1,178	2,042	67	103	23	0	0	0	3,413
Barrow-in-Furness	Roosecote	3,934	Barrow and Furness	1,504	936	52	32	12	0	0	0	2,536
Barrow-in-Furness	Walney North	4,295	Barrow and Furness	1,102	1,598	66	86	14	0	0	0	2,866
Barrow-in-Furness	Walney South	4,123	Barrow and Furness	1,145	1,524	68	93	15	0	0	0	2,845
South Lakeland	Broughton	1,782	Barrow and Furness	762	361	18	11	24	0	0	0	1,176
South Lakeland	Coniston and Crake Valley	172	Westmorland and Lonsdale	79	31	6	1	0	0	0	0	117
South Lakeland	Low Furness	1,411	Barrow and Furness	616	217	42	24	13	0	0	0	912
South Lakeland	Mid Furness	3,083	Barrow and Furness	1,293	599	121	68	35	0	0	0	2,116
South Lakeland	Ulverston Central	1,387	Barrow and Furness	542	409	55	10	16	0	0	0	1,032
South Lakeland	Ulverston East	1,552	Barrow and Furness	514	602	54	36	21	0	0	0	1,227
South Lakeland	Ulverston North	1,521	Barrow and Furness	573	395	73	10	22	0	0	0	1,073
South Lakeland	Ulverston South	1,453	Barrow and Furness	596	351	34	12	15	0	0	0	1,008
South Lakeland	Ulverston Town	1,421	Barrow and Furness	431	455	48	10	18	0	0	0	962
South Lakeland	Ulverston West	1,465	Barrow and Furness	669	234	29	8	14	0	0	0	954
	Total	67,746		22,385	22,593	1,279	962	376	0	0	0	47,595

The full details of these calculations are given on the Barrow and Furness seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Copeland

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Copeland, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Copeland				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Allerdale	Crummock	1,211	Penrith and Solway	606	184	18	14	0	0	0	0	822
Allerdale	Dalton	1,427	Penrith and Solway	616	243	74	54	0	0	0	0	987
Allerdale	Derwent Valley	1,152	Penrith and Solway	593	220	26	17	0	0	0	0	856
Allerdale	Keswick	3,971	Penrith and Solway	1,242	1,199	274	59	0	0	0	0	2,774
Copeland	Arlecdon	1,170	Cumbria West	466	312	20	21	0	0	0	0	819
Copeland	Beckermet	2,307	Cumbria West	1,055	475	42	35	0	0	0	0	1,607
Copeland	Bootle	1,014	Cumbria West	481	178	14	13	0	0	0	0	686
Copeland	Bransty	3,777	Cumbria West	1,634	916	81	60	0	0	0	0	2,691
Copeland	Cleator Moor North	3,129	Cumbria West	774	1,255	41	124	0	0	0	0	2,194
Copeland	Cleator Moor South	2,007	Cumbria West	528	896	31	36	0	0	0	0	1,491
Copeland	Distington	3,053	Cumbria West	766	1,285	51	50	0	0	0	0	2,152
Copeland	Egremont North	3,208	Cumbria West	967	1,280	58	61	0	0	0	0	2,366
Copeland	Egremont South	2,832	Cumbria West	758	1,123	53	50	0	0	0	0	1,984
Copeland	Ennerdale	820	Cumbria West	344	146	39	10	0	0	0	0	539
Copeland	Frizington	2,033	Cumbria West	507	797	23	33	0	0	0	0	1,360
Copeland	Gosforth	1,114	Cumbria West	547	170	16	14	0	0	0	0	747
Copeland	Harbour	3,169	Cumbria West	934	1,095	67	56	0	0	0	0	2,152
Copeland	Haverigg	1,028	Barrow and Furness	500	418	40	25	0	0	0	0	983
Copeland	Hensingham	3,063	Cumbria West	801	1,307	63	53	0	0	0	0	2,224
Copeland	Hillcrest	2,025	Cumbria West	812	513	43	34	0	0	0	0	1,402
Copeland	Holborn Hill	1,935	Barrow and Furness	672	584	28	31	0	0	0	0	1,315
Copeland	Kells	1,956	Cumbria West	484	747	38	34	0	0	0	0	1,303
Copeland	Millom Without	1,092	Barrow and Furness	525	181	14	13	0	0	0	0	733
Copeland	Mirehouse	3,124	Cumbria West	811	1,471	46	60	0	0	0	0	2,388
Copeland	Moresby	1,065	Cumbria West	415	288	15	17	0	0	0	0	735
Copeland	Newtown	2,635	Barrow and Furness	1,138	631	46	43	0	0	0	0	1,858
Copeland	Sandwith	1,942	Cumbria West	426	828	21	30	0	0	0	0	1,305
Copeland	Seascale	2,198	Cumbria West	1,041	378	49	29	0	0	0	0	1,497
Copeland	St Bees	1,328	Cumbria West	618	249	70	17	0	0	0	0	954
	Total	60,785		21,061	19,369	1,401	1,093	0	0	0	0	42,924

The full details of these calculations are given on the Copeland seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Barrow and Furness

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Barrow and Furness
Barrow-in-Furness	Barrow Island	2,020	Barrow and Furness	483	827	19	46	10	0	0	0	1,385
Barrow-in-Furness	Central	3,419	Barrow and Furness	816	1,414	29	71	13	0	0	0	2,343
Barrow-in-Furness	Dalton North	4,884	Barrow and Furness	1,777	1,332	124	100	12	0	0	0	3,345
Barrow-in-Furness	Dalton South	4,814	Barrow and Furness	1,684	1,496	57	45	14	0	0	0	3,296
Barrow-in-Furness	Hawcoat	3,844	Barrow and Furness	1,724	814	52	32	11	0	0	0	2,633
Barrow-in-Furness	Hindpool	4,749	Barrow and Furness	1,115	2,019	54	43	21	0	0	0	3,252
Barrow-in-Furness	Newbarns	4,276	Barrow and Furness	1,413	1,405	60	37	14	0	0	0	2,929
Barrow-in-Furness	Ormsgill	4,622	Barrow and Furness	1,086	1,944	73	43	20	0	0	0	3,166
Barrow-in-Furness	Parkside	4,391	Barrow and Furness	1,283	1,588	78	41	19	0	0	0	3,009
Barrow-in-Furness	Risedale	4,982	Barrow and Furness	1,178	2,042	67	103	23	0	0	0	3,413
Barrow-in-Furness	Roosecote	3,702	Barrow and Furness	1,504	936	52	32	12	0	0	0	2,536
Barrow-in-Furness	Walney North	4,183	Barrow and Furness	1,102	1,598	66	86	14	0	0	0	2,866
Barrow-in-Furness	Walney South	4,154	Barrow and Furness	1,145	1,524	68	93	15	0	0	0	2,845
Copeland	Haverigg	1,414	Copeland	500	418	40	25	0	0	0	0	983
Copeland	Holborn Hill	1,893	Copeland	672	584	28	31	0	0	0	0	1,315
Copeland	Millom Without	1,055	Copeland	525	181	14	13	0	0	0	0	733
Copeland	Newtown	2,673	Copeland	1,138	631	46	43	0	0	0	0	1,858
South Lakeland	Broughton	1,718	Barrow and Furness	762	361	18	11	24	0	0	0	1,176
South Lakeland	Low Furness	1,333	Barrow and Furness	616	217	42	24	13	0	0	0	912
South Lakeland	Mid Furness	3,089	Barrow and Furness	1,293	599	121	68	35	0	0	0	2,116
South Lakeland	Ulverston Central	1,506	Barrow and Furness	542	409	55	10	16	0	0	0	1,032
South Lakeland	Ulverston East	1,790	Barrow and Furness	514	602	54	36	21	0	0	0	1,227
South Lakeland	Ulverston North	1,564	Barrow and Furness	573	395	73	10	22	0	0	0	1,073
South Lakeland	Ulverston South	1,471	Barrow and Furness	596	351	34	12	15	0	0	0	1,008
South Lakeland	Ulverston Town	1,403	Barrow and Furness	431	455	48	10	18	0	0	0	962
South Lakeland	Ulverston West	1,392	Barrow and Furness	669	234	29	8	14	0	0	0	954
	Total	76,341		25,141	24,376	1,401	1,073	376	0	0	0	52,367

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Barrow and Furness. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Unknown (changed seat) (CON)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	76,341
Turnout:	68.6%

Barrow and Furness: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Barrow and Furness: Overview

Introduction